中国当前面临着人民币升值和通货膨胀双重压力,央行通过票据冲销操作来控制汇率和稳定物价。基于外汇干预经典理论,对汇改以来中国央行票据冲销操作的有效性和可持续性进行实证研究。研究发现,自汇改以来,中国央行票据冲销操作较为有效,能够对冲销操作的工具变量和最终目标产生影响,但中国长期国际收支顺差积累的巨大期末余额,一定程度上减弱了央票发行的实际冲销效用。
China is facing the double pressure of RMB appreciation and inflation,so the central bank tries to control exchange rate and stabilize price through bill sterilization operation.Based on the classical theory of foreign exchange intervention,an empirical analysis is made on the effectiveness and the sustainability of sterilization operation of central bank bills in China since foreign exchange reform.Research shows that the sterilization operation of central bank bill is effective since foreign exchange reform,which can influence the instrument variables and ultimate target.However,China's huge international payment surplus accumulated in a long period of time,to a certain degree,weakens the practical sterilization effect of central bank bills.