中文摘要：

通过对Kaya恒等式的扩展,应用LMDI将城镇化对物流业碳排放变动的影响分解为人口城镇化、空间城镇化、收入城镇化和产业城镇化四种效应,对我国29个省市2007-2013年物流业碳排放变动的机理进行分析。结果表明：考察期内城镇化对我国各省市物流业碳排放变动的促进作用远超非城镇化要素,城镇化已成为推动各省市物流业碳排放的关键因素;且物流业各要素对处于不同城镇化阶段的省市影响并不一致。对成熟城镇化省市而言,收入城镇化和空间城镇化是物流业碳排放的稳定推动因素,人口城镇化则是稳定的抑制因素,产业城镇化刚刚由推动因素转变为抑制因素;对初级和中级城镇化省市而言,人口城镇化的抑制作用和收入城镇化的推动作用依然显著,但空间城镇化和产业城镇化的推动作用正在增强。从城镇化各要素对物流业碳排放变动的贡献来看,收入城镇化的推动作用最大,且对广东等经济大省的推动作用更明显;人口城镇化的抑制作用最大,且对山东、四川等人口大省的抑制作用更显著,但波动剧烈;空间城镇化对东部经济大省的推动作用已趋稳定,但对中西部省市的推动作用持续增强;产业城镇化对各省市的作用差异显著,且均较小。研究认为避免“一刀切”的物流业碳减排政策和城镇化规划、引导居民绿色生活和解决职住分离对我国实现物流业碳减排和新型城镇化建设具有重要帮助。

英文摘要：

LMDI is used to decompose the impacts of urbanization on logistics carbon emission into four effects by extending the Kaya model, which are population urbanization, spatial urbanization, income urbanization and industrialization urbanization. And the logistics carbon emission changes mechanism of 29 provinces in China during 2007 -2013 is analyzed. The results show that the impact of urbanization is much stronger than non-urbanization factors, which has been the most important positive factor for logistics carbon emission. Besides urbanization factors impact on logistics emission is significantly different for provinces which belong to different urbanization stages. For mature urbanization provinces, income urbanization and spatial urbanization are the stable positive factors, and the population urbanization is the stable negative factor, while the industrialization urbanization has changed from positive factor to negative factor. For primary and secondary urbanization provinces, population urbanization＇ s negative impact and the income urbani- zation＇s positive impact are still strong, but, the positive impact from spatial urbanization and industrialization urbanization becomes stronger and stronger. From the view of urbanization factor contribution, the income urbanization has significantly positive impact, especially for provinces of strong economy such as Guangdong. While the population urbanization has significantly negative and tluctuant impact, especially for provinces of large population such as Shandong and Sichuan. The impact of spatial urbanization is stable for eastern provinces, but is becoming stronger and stronger for mid-western provinces. The impact of industrialization urbanization is small and significantly different for each province. So, the one-size-fits-all carbon reduction policies and urbanization plans should be avoided, while guiding the residents to green living and solving the job-housing separation will help the logistics carbon reduction and new urbanization construction.