中文摘要：

冷战后，随着亚太地区政治安全形势的变化，日本国内有关核武装的讨论日益频繁和表面化。虽然当前日本的核政策仍然以和平利用核能为基调，但是鉴于日本具有发展核武器的巨大潜力，以及近些年来日本政治加速右倾化背景下越来越公开化的发展核武器舆论，国际社会特别是曾经遭受过日本侵略战争伤害的亚太国家有理由对日本核政策的走向感到担忧和进行持续的关注。一个国家的战略行为受到多种因素的影响，日本的核政策同样如此。在分析影响国家核政策的各项因素以及它们之间相互关系的基础上，可以建构一个简明的日本核政策基本分析框架，该分析框架有助于理解日本的核政策并评估日本未来的核行为。

英文摘要：

Since the Cold War, the discussion of nuclear armament has been increasingly frequent and apparent in Japan as the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region changes. Although the current nuclear policy is still peaceful, but in view of the tremendous potential of Japan to develop nuclear weapons and increasingly public opinion of becoming nuclear armed under the comprehensive rightward trend in recent years, the international community, especially the Asia-Pacific countries which suffered from Japanese aggression, is alarmed and paying continuous attention. A country＇s nuclear policy is affected by many factors, and so is Japan＇s. We can build a streamlined nuclear policy assessment framework on the basis of analyzing the relations between different factors of nuclear policies.