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中文摘要：
本文建立了以Fick第二定律为基础的钢筋初锈时间的概率模型，通过Monte Carlo方法分析了初锈时间的频率分布、分布类型、概率密度函数。研究了各影响因素的统计参数对初锈时间概率分布规律的影响，推导了钢筋初锈时间敏度分析的表达式。分析结果表明，初锈时间对于保护层厚度的敏感性高于氯离子扩散系数，对氯离子临界浓度的敏感性高于表面浓度。
英文摘要：
The probabilistic model of corrosion initiation time of steel bar in concrete structure in chloride environment is established on the basis of the Fick＇ s second law. By means of Monte Carlo method the frequency distribution, distribution mode and probability density function are investigated. The statistic parameters of the factors influencing the probability distribution of corrosion initiation time are studied and the expression for sensitivity analysis of corrosion initiation time is deduced. The sensitivity analysis result shows that the initiation time is more sensitive to the critical chloride level than the surface chloride concentration.
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