中文摘要：

元胞自动机模型是一种时间、空间、状态都离散,空间上相互作用及时间上因果关系皆局部的网络动力学模型.在该类模型研究中,经常将其与其他类型模型相结合使用,以提高模拟有效性.轨迹分析是一种可用来分析时序动态变化的新方法.本文在总结、分析元胞自动机与轨迹分析模型各自特点的基础上,探讨了两者在土地利用动态变化研究中联合应用的可能性,为以后建立基于轨迹分析与元胞自动机的土地利用动态模型奠定理论基础.通过对天津滨海新区土地利用变化进行初步模拟,证实了该理论的可行性.

英文摘要：

Cellular automaton model is a dynamic network model,which is discrete in time,space and state,and local in spatial interaction and temporal causality.In the research of this model,it is often combined with other types of models to improve the simulation efficiency.The trajectory analysis method is a new method for analyzing dynamic changes in the time series.After summarizing and analyzing the characteristics of cellular automaton model and trajectory analysis method,this paper discusses the possibility of joint application of the two methods in the simulation of land use changes,laying a theoretical foundation for the establishment of land use dynamic model.The feasibility of the combination of the two meth-ods is further confirmed by a preliminary simulation of land use changes in Binhai New Area in Tianjin.