本文利用二阶局部调整模型对我国的货币需求函数进行了定量估计。估计结果表明,实际产出、名义利率、通货膨胀率、股票市价总值以及货币替代率均对我国的狭义和广义货币需求产生了显著的影响。分析表明,我国近年来的利率和汇率政策仍然是以稳定通货膨胀为主要任务的;通过利率调整或者人民币升值等货币政策改善我国货币供求状况的过程中,应进一步关注各宏观经济变量对货币需求的影响动态。
In this paper, the authors make a quantitive estimate of the function of money demand in China with the two - step partial adjustment model. The result of the estimate indicates that actual output, nominal interest rate, inflation rate, total stock market value and currency substitution rate all have evident effect on the money demand of our country in both the narrow and broad sense. The anal- ysis shows that the main mission of the interest rate and exchange rate policies of our country in recent years is still to stabilize inflation. In the process of amending the money demand of our country through interest rate adjustment or RMB appreciation, the trend of the influence of each macro economic variable on money demand should be paid further attention.