中文摘要：

流通业在国民经济中的作用一直是流通学界研究的主要内容.利用灰色关联度分析方法,对山东省流通业与国民经济三产业的关系进行分析,结果表明流通业的发展对山东省产业结构的调整具有积极作用.通过建立GM（1,1）模型,对＂十二五＂期间山东省流通业的发展状况进行预测并与＂十五＂、＂十一五＂发展状况进行对比,进一步验证了流通业对于山东省三产业的平衡发展发挥着举足轻重的作用.

英文摘要：

The functions of circulation industry in national economy has been the chief content of study for the researchers in the field.By method GRAP,an analysis of relationship among the circulation industry and three industries in national economy in Shandong Province was made and the results show that the development of circulation industry is of positive functions for the adjustment of the industrial structures in Shandong.By GM（1,1） model,the prediction of development of the circulation industry in the period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan was made.Compared with the development in the period of the Tenth and Eleventh Five-year Plan,it was further tested and verified that the circulation industry is of great importance for the balanced development of three industries in Shandong Province.