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中文摘要：
在水库群短期优化调度的风险分析问题中既需要考虑径流预报误差、水流滞时的影响,又需要处理大量的模拟计算。从风险管理的角度出发,构建了考虑径流预报误差、滞时的不确定性2类风险因子耦合作用的水库群短期优化调度风险分析模型,并引入并行求解技术,提高了模型的求解效率。以雅砻江流域2水电站的短期优化调度风险分析为例,对模型的有效性及并行求解的高效性进行了验证。所提方法操作简单且兼具实用性,对发电计划的制定及水库的运行管理方面有重要的指导意义。
英文摘要：
It is important to makes a risk analysis of short-term optimal operations, owing to the runoff prediction error, water delay and a large number of numerical simulations. In this paper, short-term optimal operation risk analysis model considering the runoff prediction error and water delay is established in the view of risk management, and parallel computing is used to improve solution efficiency. As an example, the model is applied to Yalong River, The validity of the model and the efficiency of parallel solution are verified. It is shown that the model is not only simple and effective, but also very significant to making power generation planning or reservoir operation management.
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