为了更加合理解决保险定价问题,本文引入金融风险中性定价思想,提出新的保险定价方法。在不完全的保险市场,利用信息论领域中推测概率分布的最小叉熵优化模型,对经验损失分布进行调整,得到保险风险中性最小叉熵密度,进而确定新的保费。结果表明最小叉熵密度使高风险的比例增大,这体现了风险中性的本质。该保险定价方法的形式是确定的,且所建的最小叉熵优化模型具有灵活、简便的特性。
In order to make insurance pricing more reasonable, the risk-neutral pricing idea of finance market is introduced and a new insurance pricing method is presented. In the incomplete insurance market, the loss distribution is adjusted by the minimum cross-entropy optimization model which is used to speculate on the probability distribution of information theory field and the insurance risk-neutral minimum cross-entropy density is obtained. Further, the new premium is confirmed. The results show that the minimum cross-entropy density gives more weight to higher risk events, which embodies the risk-neutral essence. The form of new premium is certain and the established minimum cross-entropy model is very flexible and simple.