中文摘要：

大规模不确定性电源接入电网给电力系统带来了随机性、波动性和间歇性等不确定性因素,现有的随机生产模拟理论不能很好地解决上述形势下的电源规划和评估。鉴于此,提出了＂电力系统柔性生产模拟＂的概念并研究了其一般方法和流程。该方法不仅能得到传统随机生产模拟的可靠性和经济性指标,还给出了考虑不确定性电源和储能接入下的不确定性电源发电的容量可信度以及可避免费用等。所提方法还从电网调峰和调频两个层面和时间尺度评估了系统的弃能电量。在调峰层面,基于电网调峰需求和调峰能力加以分析给出了该层面的弃能电量;在调频层面,采用多场景分析理论给出了调频层面弃能电量的评估方法。电力系统柔性生产模拟能为含不确定性电源的电源规划及评估提供理论依据,并能全面评估不确定性电源的接入对电网造成的影响。对2020年西北规划电网的仿真计算验证了所提方法的正确性和有效性。

英文摘要：

Uncertain energy is characterized as randomness, fluctuation, and intermittency, -which would bring in uncertain factors when connected to power grid. However, conventional probabilistic production simulation can＇t deal with generation expansion planning and evaluation well in the above situation. In order to overcome these disadvantages, the concept of flexible production simulation for power system is proposed, whose general method and procedure are also discussed. Flexible production simulation can calculate the reliability and economic indices given by conventional probabilistic production simulation, and also provides capacity credit and avoidable cost considering uncertain energy and storage being connected to power system. Abandoned uncertain energy power could be evaluated by the theory presented in the paper from time scale and two aspects of peak-load regulation and frequency adjustment. In the respect of peak-load regulation, abandoned uncertain energy power is analyzed through the demand and capacity of peak regulation. Abandoned uncertain energy power in frequency adjustment level is assessed based on multi-scene analysis. Flexible production simulation for power system provides a theoretical basis for generation expansion planning and comprehensive assessment of the impact of uncertain energy connected to power system. The effectiveness and validity of the proposed method are illustrated by the simulation of 2020 Northwest Power Network Planning.