为考察洪水过程形态特征是否随环境变化而发生变异,本文提出了基于信息熵的洪水过程均匀度变异分析方法。该法首先借用信息熵构建洪水过程均匀度模型,然后采用水文变异诊断系统分析洪水过程均匀度序列的变异规律,最后分析造成变异的物理成因。以东江流域龙川站洪水过程为例,计算结果显示:龙川站洪水过程均匀度在1972年发生了跳跃强变异,变异后洪水过程均匀度的均值增大,说明变异后洪水过程较变异前更加均匀;通过成因分析,推测这种变异受气候变化的影响不大,主要是由于人类活动特别是枫树坝水库的修建运行造成的下垫面变化引起的。
Variation analysis method for flood process homogeneity based on the information entropy has been proposed in this paper in order to investigate whether the morphological characteristics of the flood hy- drograph vary with the environmental changes. Firstly, this method uses the information entropy to construct flood process homogeneity model, and then adopts the hydrologic variation diagnosis system to analyze the variation rule of the flood process homogeneity series, and finally analyzes the variation explore the physi- cal origin. Taking the flood series of Longchuan station in Dongjiang river basin as an example, the results of the calculation show that the flood process homogeneity series of Longchuan station in Dongjiang river ba- sin have a strong hop mutation in 1972 and its mean value has increased after variation point, indicating the flood process has 'been more even; and the variation is ascribed to the changes of watershed land sur- face which is mainly caused by human activities in particular the construction and operation of Maple Dam Reservoir, while the climate change has no significant effect on it.