中文摘要：

20世纪80年代以来，中国南方双季稻区出现的双季稻改单季稻已经造成水稻播种面积的减少,近年来直接影响到稻谷产量的增长。本文在新古典假设下，构建了农户行为模型，利用单位概率模型对影响江汉平原稻农水稻种植模式变化的深层次因素进行了分析，结论发现除气候变化等自然因素外，非农活动增加而引起的劳动力不足是导致双季稻改单季稻的主要原因。

英文摘要：

More and more farmers are changing double season rice to single season rice, which has led to the decrease of rice plantation areas since 1980s and the decrease of rice output in recent years. Based on researches of Jianghan Plain in Hubei province,this paper investigates factors that lead to change of farmer＇s cropping patterns with Probit Model and find that, except for changes of environment, the main reason of shortage of labor is that results in the change from double season rice to single season rice, which is caused by non-farming activities.