中文摘要：

以2001-2011年中国大陆地区31个省份为基础样本库,考察了各省份实现GDP增速与预期目标之间的差距对其环境污染的影响,以及公众参与度与法制化程度的调节机制,得出以下研究结论：首先,各省份实现GDP增速与预期目标之间的差距和二氧化硫排放量存在一种倒“V”型的关系：当某省份实现GDP增速超出预期目标时,当前优良的绩效表现将导致当地政府与外界对该地区未来GDP增长有更高的期望,实际GDP增速高于预期目标程度越大,二氧化硫排放量越大;而当某省份未实现GDP增速预期时,实现GDP增速低于预期目标程度越大,二氧化硫排放量越大。其次,以环境为代价,短期内提高GDP增长的行为,可能受制于公众参与度和法制化程度的影响,相比公众参与度、法制化程度较低的省份,公众参与度、法制化程度较高的省份,GDP增速压力对环境污染的正向影响减弱,这表明公众参与政府环境决策和法制能对行政自由裁量权构成制约和监督,在一定程度上预防和遏制由于行政主管部门片面追逐GDP增长而带来的环境污染和破坏。

英文摘要：

By analysis the data of the 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2011, we theoretically and empirically examine the changes in the environmental pollution of specific province over time based on the performance relative to GDP growth forecasts and external monitoring mechanism. We make the following conclusions： Firstly, the gap between forecast and real GDP growth has a reverse ＂V＂ shape with SO2 emissions. Local officials tend to increase SO2 emissions when they are under pressure to meet GDP growth forecasts. When performance misses GDP growth forecasts, local officials increase SO2 emissions to improve the chance of meeting GDP growth forecasts after missing the forecasts in the prior year. When performance meets GDP growth forecasts, local governments tend to face significantly higher future forecasts. In this situation, local officials also increase SO： emissions. Secondly, public participation and institutionalization can serve as an external monitoring mechanism to help contain this problem and weaken the positive relationship between performance gap and SO2 emissions when firm performance misses or exceed GDP growth forecasts.