中文摘要：

本文应用WEP-L模型分析了气温和降水变化对黄河源区年、月径流过程的影响。采用唐乃亥水文站1956～2000年的径流观测系列,对WEP-L模型进行了率定和验证。在模型验证效果较好的墓础上,设定了气温和降水变化的8个情景方案（对历史观测气象数据资料假定气温变化±1、±2℃,降水量变化±10%、±20%）,进行了模拟和对比分析。结果表明,年径流量和年内各月径流量对气温变化的响应情况不同。气温增高会引起年径流量减少,每年5～10月径流由于蒸发增大而有较明显的减少,但每年11月至次年4月径流受积雪融雪及冻土入渗能力变化影响会有增加。降水量的增加（减少）直接造成径流量不同程度的增加（减少）,径流增减幅度大于降水增减幅,月径流量对降水变化的响应可分成丰水季节、枯水季节及过渡季节三种类型。

英文摘要：

The impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual and monthly runoff process in headwater area of the Yellow River was analyzed by using WEP-L model.The model was calibrated and verified by the 45 years observed meteorological data obtained from the Tannaihai Hydrological Station.On this basis,the simulation of 8 climate change scenarios was carried out.The results indicate that the increase of atmospheric temperature causes the decrease of annual runoff,the runoff significantly reduced from May to October due to the increase of evaporation but it will increase from November to April of next year because of the melting of snow and the change of infiltration characteristics caused by frozen.The variation of precipitation may directly affect the change of runoff,but the variation rate of runoff is larger than the change rate of precipitation.