中文摘要：

结合土地利用、土壤类型数据和降水数据,应用SCS水文模型,在GIS环境的支持下,模拟徐州市区1983-2013年土地利用变化及其对地表年径流深的影响。结果显示,土地利用变化主要表现为城镇建设用地、水体、未利用地面积增加,耕地、草地、林地面积减少。土地利用结构的变化使得地表径流深发生变化,在前期土壤湿润程度为平均,降水量为803 mm的情况下,30年间徐州市区年径流深增加了42mm,年径流系数增加了0.06。

英文摘要：

Based on data of land use and soil classification and precipitation data,land use change and impact of land use change on depth of surface runoff of Xuzhou during the period of 1983-2013 was analyzed by using the SCS hydrological model under the environment of GIS. The results showed that the dynamic change of land use mainly presented the increase of the areas of urban land, water, unused land and the decrease of farmland, grassland, forest land. The change of land use made the depth of surface runoff change. Supposing the early soil moisture as average and annual rainfall precipitation as the level of flat water years-803 mm, the annual depth of surface runoff of Xuzhou increased 42 mm, and the annual runoff coefficient increased 0.06 in the 30 years.