本文从劳动力全球化视角,根据相对劳动成本平阶模型,以美国为比较基准,选择东亚4国和印度为比较对象,以1991-2008的6国相对劳动平价、实际汇率变动和相对劳动成本变动做了系列研究。研究表明,就全时期而言,中国的实际汇率与基期相比已处于升值状态,而其他发展中国家贬值程度扩大,分时期看,在东南亚金融危机前,中国具有相对劳动成本优势。东南亚金融危机后,劳动成本优势持续下降,本次金融危机后,国际竞争力继续恶化。根据研究结果,认为人民币不具升值空间,保持汇率稳定是当前的最优策略。
This article starts from the perspective of labor globalization. According to the labor cost parity model, taking the U.S. as the comparison standard, we choose four East Asian countries and India for comparison and conduct series of research on comparative labor parity, changes in real exchange rate and changes in comparative labor cost in the six countries from 1991 to 2008. Our research suggests that, throughout the period, China' s real exchange rate actually rises when compared with the base period, while the depreciation extent expands in other developing countries; as for different stages, before South -east Asian financial crisis broke out, China had comparative advantage in labor cost. After the crisis broke out, such advantage kept declining. The financial crisis this time further deteriorates the international competitive power. The results show that RMB has no appreciation chance and that keeping the stability of the exchange rate is the optimum strategy at present.