中文摘要：

选取厦门市2001、2007年的遥感影像数据,监督分类提取土地利用现状图.利用城市兴趣点（point of interest,POI）数据,提取了8种景观可达性因子以及数字高程模型（digital elevation model,DEM）数据作为厦门市土地利用变化的驱动力因子;在此基础上并利用Getis空间自相关滤波模型改进传统逻辑回归模型,构建土地利用变化驱动力模型,表明模型整体精度达74.3%,受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic,ROC）曲线下面积为0.884,以定量分析不同驱动力因子对厦门市土地利用空间变化的影响机制.利用Dyna-CLUE模型对厦门市2020年的土地利用变化的预测结果表明：厦门市未来新增建设用地主要集中于岛外辅城,整体土地供需矛盾突出,耕地保护压力日益增大,土地问题将是制约厦门未来城市社会经济发展的主要瓶颈.

英文摘要：

This paper made a study of change in land use in Xiamen. Two maps of land use in Xiamen in 2001 and 2007 were acquired by satellites images classification. Driving factors for change in land use in Xiamen, derived from eight accessibility factors using POI （points of interest） and DMA data, were also selected by using distance analysis of GIS. The Getis filtering model was then adopted to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of land use change as well as to improve the capability of the traditional multivariate logistic regression. The overall accuracy rate is up to 74. 3% and the ROC is 0. 884, indicating that quantitative analysis is applicable to study the impacts of different driving factors on the spatial-temporal change in land use in Xiamen. Finally, the Dyna-CLUE model is applied to predict the future land use in Xiamen in 2020. The simulation results reveal that the increasing areas of construction are mainly located outside Xiamen Island. The gap between overall land supply and demand is strikingly wide, giving rise to increasingly severe pressure on farmland protection. Land use will become the main bottlenecks for economic and social development in Xiamen.