中文摘要：

针对电力市场环境下梯级水库发电调度的风险因素,应用统计分析、模糊数学和信息熵等理论,结合梯级水库发电调度操作规线,融入决策者的风险偏好和利益趋势,构建梯级水库发电调度预警决策支持系统,以期对发电计划进行滚动修正和风险评估。

英文摘要：

This paper develops an early warning decision support system for optimized operation of cascade reservoirs power generation with consideration of generation scheduling risk factors related to power market. This system applies statistical analysis, fuzzy mathematics and entropy theory, and combines dispatching rules with decision makers＇ preference and interests in selection of risk levels. Thus, the system meets the goal of making roll correction on power generation plan and assessing its risks.