中文摘要：

提出了一个简单实用的对太阳黑子数平滑月均值做比较的方法，考虑了国际黑子数的实际计数精度和已有实测数据时间序列特征，利用实测数据与本文推导出的比较黑子数大小的公式，估算出2009年1月至2009年4月太阳黑子数平滑月均值的范围，判断出第24周可能起始于2008年12月。然后用我们发展的相似周方法与相似位相概念做出了分别适用干预报第24周上升相的时间长度和极大黑子数值的统计公式，预测出第24周将在2013年9月至2014年5月期间出现平滑月均黑子数为60—80的最高峰，该值远低于第23周的120.8的高峰。

英文摘要：

A simple and applicable method is proposed for comparing the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers. Considering the calculating precision for the national sunspot numbers and the time series characteristics of the existing measured data, the range of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers from January to April in 2009 is estimated according to the measured data and the sunspot numbers comparison equations deducted in this paper. That the solar cycle 24 should start in December 2008 is given. Then the ascending length and the maximum sunspot number are predicted, using the statistical formulae and the conceptions of similar cycle and similar phase which are developed in our previous work. The peak for solar cycle 24 will be in 60-80, which will appear in the period from September 2013 to May 2014 and seems to be much lower than 120.8, the peak of solar cycle 23.