文章依据市场分形理论,运用HURST指数法对2009年我国小麦价格的走势进行了预测,结论是2009年中国小麦市场价格将出现分化:常规品种的小麦价格将保持上扬势头,而优质品种的小麦价格将出现下滑。因此,为稳定2009年我国粮食市场,政府应对小麦实行严格的进口配额管理制度,对小麦常规品种的种植面积应适当调增,而对小麦优质品种的种植面积应适当调减或不变。
According to market fractal theory, using HURST index, the author predicts the price of Chinese wheat in 2009, and draws such conclusions that the price of routine wheat will keep rising while the special ones will decline in 2009. So, the government should take some measures to stabilize Chinese grain market as followings. Firstly, the quota of wheat import should be kept strictly; Secondly, the areas of routine wheat should he increased while the areas of special ones should be remained or curtailed somewhat.