资本流动的经济效应是金融自由化进程中争论的焦点之一。本文概述了资本流动与经济增长关系的最新研究进展。在国际收支框架内,利用证券投资项下的资本流动的1991—2007年的季度时间序列数据,发现我国证券投资项下资本流动与经济增长具有较高相关关系和双向因果关系。采用四种不同的资本流动口径对人均GDP进行协整分析,结果表明,证券投资项下的资本流量与长期经济增长呈显著正相关,并提出了相应的政策建议。
The effect of capital flow on economic growth has been the focus of financial liberalization. This paper summarize the newly research on the relationship between capital flow and economic growth. Under the balance of payments, with the quarterly data of China from 1991 to 2007, we discover a strong correlation and bilateral causality between the security market capital flow and the economic growth. We do co-integration analysis between per capita GDP and four different real capital flow indexes. The conclusion shows that the capital flows under the portfolio investment has a significant effect on economic growth in the long-run.