中文摘要：

基于状态空间模型的时变参数回归,本文的研究发现：全球金融危机以来,东亚经济体的货币制度正趋向于钉住各自的货币篮子,然而对于篮子中锚货币的选择是否存在趋同则仍不确定。此外,美元在货币篮子中仍起决定性作用,人民币地位仅有小幅提升。与传统观点相反,作为驻锚货币,美元的影响力下降恰恰主要发生在金融危机之前。而在2008年金融危机之后,美元和欧元在东亚的地位反而得到了增强,同时人民币和日元受到削弱。但与日元不同,遭受短暂冲击后,人民币的权重很快回复,此后人民币的锚货币地位保持了上升趋势。

英文摘要：

With the time varying parameter regression,this paper finds that since the global financial crisis,the East Asian currencies have moved towards basket- peg. Nevertheless,whether there is a convergence among the selection of currency anchors in the baskets remains doubtful. In addition,the dollar still plays a dominant role in the baskets,and renminbi＇s influence increases slightly. Opposite to the conventional view,the US dollar＇s position weakened mainly before the sub- prime crisis. While the global financial crisis enhances the role of dollar and euro and undermines the role of renminbi and yen. But different from yen,renminbi＇s position restored and became even more important after that.