本文在广泛收集数据资料的基础上,系统分析了不同类型极端天气气候对旅游业的影响,按影响机制将其划分为3个类型,并借助本底趋势线理论完成了2008年雪灾对旅游业影响的分析。结果显示:①高温热浪等主要通过降低气候舒适度,大雾等主要通过阻断交通,降低景区的可进入性和可观赏性,暴雨洪水等主要通过危及人们生命安全,来影响旅游业的发展;②2008年雪灾对各省区入境旅游的影响并不是很大,其中,贵州、江西等受灾严重,旅游损失率最大,损失率在1.48%~4.98%;广东、江苏客流损失量较大,分别为11.7×10^4人和5.6×10^4人;③雪灾对各城市入境旅游的影响较小,其中,桂林、黄山受灾严重,旅游损失率较大,损失率分别为2.25%和1.79%;深圳、桂林客流损失量较大,分别为4.0×10^4人和3.4×10^4人;④2008年雪灾对旅游业的影响,其游客损失量与客流量基数(本底值)成正比;游客损失率与2008年本底值(基数)成反比;损失量和损失率两者均与受灾程度存在一定的成正比关系。
Tourism is often affected by extreme weather and climate. Influence of different types of extreme weather and climate on tourism was systematically analyzed based on an extensive collection of data. In general, extreme weather and climate can be grouped into three types in terms of their impact mechanisms. The influence of the snowstorm in 2008 on tourism was analyzed in detail on the basis of the theory of the natural trend curve. Results indicated that first, extreme high-temperature and low-temperature would affect tourism by decreasing climate comfort degrees of tourists. In this case, tourists tend not to be touring. Fog, dust storm, and snowstorm affect tourism by blocking traffic and reducing accessibility and suitability of spots. Tourists can often not go out for touring in the case. Flood, tropical storm, and ice storm affect tourism by decreasing the safety of people. Tourists are afraid to go out for touring. Second, the impact of the snowstorm in 2008 on tourism was not significant. Guizhou, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangxi provinces suffered the largest loss rates ranging from 1.48% to 4.98%. Jiangsu, Yunnan, and Anhui provinces exposed relatively smaller loss rates ranging from 0.62% to 0.97%. Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hubei, and Shanghai provinces and city suffered the smallest loss rates ranging from 0.18% to 0.54%. Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces suffered relatively larger flow losses, with an estimated number of tourists of 117,000 and 56,000, respectively. Guangxi, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan provinces suffered a smaller flow loss, with showing the decreased number of tourists ranging from 21,000 to 34,000. Shanghai, Anhui, and Hubei provinces suffered the smallest flow losses, with indicating the decreased number of tourists less than 10,000. Third, the impact of the snowstorm in 2008 on cities' tourism was considered minor. Guilin and Huangshan cities suffered the largest loss rates ranging from 1.79% to 2.25%. Suzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Xi' an cities suffered sm