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中文摘要：
讨论了具有散度偏大特征计数数据的建模与拟合问题.针对导致数据散度偏大的原因和常用的几类候选模型的结构,分别给出了关于嵌套模型的模型与变量同时选择的Bayes方法和关于非嵌套模型的模型检验与比较方法,并在此基础上进一步完善,提出了较为系统完整的模型与变量选择方法.实际例子说明了方法的具体实现过程和有效性.
英文摘要：
The problems of modeling and fitting on count data with overdisper- sion are disscussed. Accouting to the various reasons of count data exhibiting overdispersion and the different candidate models to fitting, a Bayesian procedure for the nested model and a test method for the non-nested model are proposed, respectively. A unified framework for the model comparison and the variable se- lection is provided. The example illustrates the implement and the effection of the method.
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