以财税政策为例分析了我国能源政策的调节效应。首先,运用协整检验、向量误差修正和方差分解技术对中国1993-2006年能源财税政策的动态效应作了实证分析。结果表明,我国能源财税政策对能源消费具有较强的调控效果;能源财税政策外生于能源消费,具有较强的独立性;能源财税政策存在较长的时滞,有明显的中期化现象。最后,从开放能源市场、提高市场化程度、增强能源财税政策目标的针对性和形成完整能源财税政策体系等方面探讨了增强能源财税政策调节效应的政策建议。
In this paper, the cointegrating test, vector autoregression model and variance decomposition are used to analyze the dynamic effect of energy fiscal policies between 1993 and 2006 in China. The results are as follows. First, the fiscal policy has stronger control effect on Chinese energy consumption. Secondly, the fiscal policy is exogenous from energy consumption and has obvious independence of it. And finally, the energy fiscal policy has long delay and obvious medium-term phenomenon. The paper also discusses the suggestions of enhancing the regulatory effect of the policy by opening energy markets, improving market-oriented level, enhancing the pertinence of the objectives of energy policy and forming a complete system of energy fiscal policy.