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中文摘要：
本文在已有的研究基础上，结合我国现行的抗震规范（GB50011—2001）和地震作用统计参数，提出了pushover分析中结构体系抗力曲线的保证率计算方法。以pushover分析所得的塑性铰出现次序和最终数量作为结构主要失效模式，同时考虑了结构抗力以及地震作用的随机性对结构体系抗力曲线的影响，借助于主要随机变量的灵敏度分析，得到了确定性pushover分析曲线的保证率。框架结构算例给出了本文方法的计算结果，并用重要抽样法进行了检验。
英文摘要：
On the basis of studies about probabilistic analysis of the pushover method and the combination of Chinese seismic code （ GB50011 - 2001 ） and the statistic parameters of earthquake action, a new computing method used for calculation of reliability of the structural capacity curve obtained from the pushover analysis is developed. With the pushover analysis, the sequence and number of the plastic hinges of a structure is taken as the dominant failure mode. The influence of probabilistic characteristics of the structure resistance and earthquake action on the structural capacity curve is considered. With the sensitivity analysis of main random variables, the reliability of a determinate capacity curve analyzed by pushover method can be obtained. A numerical example of a frame structure demonstrates the calculation results. The accuracy of the method is also verified by the importance sampling method.
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