中文摘要：

[目的/意义]我国进入全面深化改革的攻坚阶段,国际国内形势空前复杂。随着互联网技术的发展,群体性事件又出现了诸多值得关注的新特点,要求决策者做到面对事件,实时解算、随机应变、因地制宜,当前群体性事件计算机辅助决策的应用非常有限,基于WEB服务的决策系统亟待研究和开发。[方法/过程]针对群体性事件涉及到的非结构化数据,采用基于案例推理的智能决策支持方法,提取群体性事件的特征要素,整理建立案例数据库,用层次分析法和贝叶斯理论确定特征要素权重,用K-最近邻法进行相似度计算,综合利用信息技术与智能决策技术,对事件信息进行有效处理,预测其发展态势及未来可能的发展情景,并实时形成可操作性的应急决策方案,预防和控制群体性事件进一步发展,实现有效应急决策管理。[结果/结论]设计基于.net平台的SQL Server＋WCF＋Silverlight的Web服务系统,包含案例管理、案例推理、用户管理、交流学习和系统帮助5个模块,以求成为政府管理者,决策处置群体性事件,整理总结相关经验原则和学习的助手。

英文摘要：

[ Purpose/Significance] Our country has entered a critical stage of comprehensively deepening reform, and the international and domestic situations are unprecedented complicated, which requires that policy makers could act according to circumstances and give so- lutions in real-time facing events. While, it is very limited to apply the IDSS （Intelligent Decision Support System） to disposal of group events, especially, the system based on web is yet to be investigated and developed. [ Method/Process] For unstructured data involved in group events, CBR technique and other methods of database, statistics and et al are adopted to implement intelligent decision, process in- formation of events effectively, predict the development situation and possible development scenarios for the future, and propose recom- mendation of operability in real-time for effective emergency management to prevent and control the further development of group events. [ Result/Conclusion] Furthermore, an intelligent decision support web service system based on the. net framework of SQL Server＋WCF＋Silverlight has been developed, including such five modules as case management, case-based reasoning, user management, exchange and system help, to help government regulators to make decisions in dealing with group events and summarize the relevant experience and prin- ciple, and learn from each other.