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中文摘要：
河流修复中的补水过程,可导致周围地下水位抬升进而威胁地下工程与环境的安全.地下水预测模型不确定性分析,可为河流生态修复管理决策提供依据.本文以北京永定河生态修复为例,采用GMS软件建立了区域地下水流数值模型,用敏感性分析法对地下水流场的主控因素进行了识别,进而用蒙特卡洛技术研究并获得模型模拟预测结果的不确定性.本文探讨并提出了大尺度区域地下水预测模型不确定性分析的实用与有效方法.
英文摘要：
River ecological restoration with water replenishment could considerably raise groundwater level and might then threaten safety of subsurface engineering and environment,while uncertainty analysis of groundwater level prediction can provide a basis for the effective management of river ecological restoration. Taking the ecological restoration of Yongding River in Beijing as a case,we built a groundwater model and determined the main controlling factors,and then obtained the uncertainty of the simulated groundwater levels by the Monte-Carlo technique,The practical and effective method has been proposed for uncertainty analysis of groundwater numerical model in large scale.
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