以前的研究在华南降水揭示了双山峰模式(DPM ) ,相应于在雨季的二个阶段,即第一个多雨的阶段(皇家学会会员) 和第二个多雨的阶段(SRS ) 。但是观察在最近二十年证明 DPM 改变了到一个单个山峰的模式(SPM ) 。降水数量和重降雨事件频率在 1961-1990 在 19912010 在在 FRS 和 SRS 之间的差距显著地提高了,与那些相比。这个变化能被连接到全球温暖的效果。在更温暖的时期期间,在西方的太平洋上的 7 月海表面温度在中央、东方的太平洋上比那有更大的增加,特别 140 的西方 ? ????? 鯠?鯠 吗??
Previous studies revealed the double-peak mode (DPM) in South China precipitation, corresponding to the two stages in the rainy season, i.e. the first rainy stage (FRS) and the second rainy stage (SRS). But observations in recent two decades show that the DPM has changed to a single-peak mode (SPM). Both the precipitation amount and the heavy rainfall event frequency enhanced significantly in the gap between the FRS and the SRS in 1991-2010, compared to those in 1961-1990. This change can be linked to the effects of the global warming. During the warmer period, the July sea surface temperature over the western Pacific has greater increases than that over the central and eastern Pacific, especially west of 140~E. It may generate more tropical cyclones (TCs) in the inshore areas and then more typhoon rainfall over South China. On the other hand, the increments of the air tempera- ture over the East Asian continent are greater than those of the SST over the western Pacific under the global warming, which enlarges the land-ocean temperature/pressure contrast and leads to a trend of the earlier onset dates of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) in recent two decades. Then, the earlier ASM will facilitate the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) to retreat earlier from the South China Sea and enhance the convective precipitation in South China between the FRS and the SRS. Also, due to the warmer ocean, the WPSH locates more westward in July, and more moisture will be transported to South China from the south- west side to the WPSTH. All these influences favor a remarkably increasing precipitation in the gap in the warmer period and changes the seasonal cycle from double-peak mode to single-peak mode.