中文摘要：

鹤壁市作为河南省高标准粮田示范区，肩负着保证粮食安全与实现农业现代化的重担。运用IDRISI软件的CA-Markov方法，通过对2003年、2013年土地利用动态变化的处理，得到鹤壁市2023年的土地利用模拟预测图。结果表明：“十三五”期间鹤壁市耕地数量小幅下降，但仍具有面积优势，平均减少动态度仅0．93％；耕地重心30年间均在浚县内，未来浚县将成为高标准粮田建设的核心区域；到2023年，耕地在内部挖潜与占补平衡的作用下日益集中连片，且灌溉水平提高，注重绿色化发展，高标准粮田建设水平提升；未来耕地质量退化减少，占补质量趋于均衡，有利于高标准粮田区的可持续发展。

英文摘要：

Hebi City as the demonstration area of the construction of high standard grain area in Henan Province, it bore the burden of ensuring food security and realizing the modernization of agriculture. With the use of CA - Markov model in the IDRISI software, through the treatment of the dynamic changes of land use in 2003 and 2013, we could get the land use simulation forecast map in Hebi City in 2023. And the analysis of prediction could be found in the period of the＂ 13th Five- Year Plan＂, the quantity of cultivated land in Hebi City were declined slightly, but it still had the ad- vantage, and the average decrease of dynamic degree only 0.93 % of cultivated land in Hebi City. The next study could be found that the center of gravity in during 30 years were maintained in the territory of Xunxian County of Hebi City, and within the next few years, Xunxian County would be- come the core area. In 2023, the cultivated land would become increasingly focus on concentrated in Hebi City with the function of tapping the poten- tial of the interior of the land and realizing the balance of cultivated land requisition and compensation, and the level of cultivated land irrigation would increase significantly. For the development of ecology and environment, the local government would pay more attention to green development. All in all, the construction of the high standard grain level would be improved. As a conclusion, the quality degradation of cultivated land would be reduced in Hebi City, the quality balance of cultivated land requisition and compensation would tend to be more balanced, and this would be conducive to sus- tainable development of high standard grain area.