为解决当前复杂地形地貌背景区干旱风险评价研究普遍缺乏足够针对性的问题,以四川省为例,基于自然灾害风险理论,综合气象、水文、地形地貌、实际灾害和人口与社会经济等各方面信息构建评价指标体系,并从复杂地形地貌背景区的角度进行指标因子的计算。通过构建复杂地形地貌背景区的评价指标体系,并利用熵权赋权法,实现了基于格网的四川省干旱风险评价,得到了能够实际反映研究区干旱风险的、较为可靠的结果。结果显示,四川盆地大部和川西南攀枝花、凉山州部分地区干旱灾害风险等级高;广元、巴中、达州北部地区,凉山州和攀枝花市大部分地区以及宜宾市和泸州市南部地区,川西高原的部分河谷地带分布有一般等级的干旱风险;川西高原大部分地区风险较低。本研究,尤其在因子指标体系构建方面的研究,对类似复杂地形地貌背景区干旱风险评价工作的开展具有一定的借鉴意义。
This article intended to achieve drought risk assessment in complex topography area, such as Sichuan Province, in the support of natural disaster risk theory and multi-source data, especially satellite data which was widely used to reflect the properties of study area from different angles including meteorology, hydrology, topography. In detail, TRMM satellite precipitation data was used to make up for the shortage of data from meteorological stations. And the latitude, longitude and digital elevation model were introduced to improve the accuracy of temperature interpolation;furthermore, drought frequency instead of drought degree was calculated using Normalized Vegetation Index data to more accurately quantify drought risks. Meanwhile, an index of water acquisition cost was constructed to quantify the affections of terrain on water distribution and acquisition. In addition, raster data were used as far as possible, such as raster populations and economies. Thus, an index system which revealed variable properties of study area in different angles was constructed. And then, weights of the index system were calculated using entropy method. Finally, the drought risk in Sichuan Province was assessed. The accuracy of this assessment was tested by agricultural drought risk loss. It showed a high correlation between the agricultural loss and the drought risk achieved from this paper (R2=0.8347, P〈0.001). Thus, the reliability of this research in aspect of drought risk assessment in complex topography areas was proved. Through the analysis of drought risk assessment result, it showed that:1) Most of Sichuan Basin, part of Panzhihua and Liangshan showed high drought risks; 2) Northern Guangyuan, Bazhong, Dazhou, most of Liangshan and Panzhihua, southern Yibin and Luzhou reached average risk degrees, as well as some valleys in the Western Sichuan Plateau;3) However, there was quite low risk in most of the Western Sichuan Plateau. Through this study, it proved that the index system and method in drought risk a