本文以1997-2006年HS分类商品出口的月度数据为样本,采用边限检验方法判别长期协整关系,并采用自回归多元滞后分布一误差修正模型(ARDL-ECM)分析人民币实际有效汇率波动,对不同类别商品出口的长期和短期影响。估计结果显示,不同类别商品出口受人民币汇率水平和波动率变化的影响有较大差异。
This paper investigates the effect of RMB exchange rate volatility on export by employing monthly data from 1997 to 2006. This paper employs bound tests to identify the long run cointegration, and utilizes autoregressive distributed lag error correction model (ARDL-ECM) to test the long and short run impacts of real effective RMB exchange rate and its volatility on export commodity classified according to HS code. The result shows that real effective RMB exchange rate volatility has different effects on different categories of export commodities.