中文摘要：

根据降雨频率重现期统计结果，汶川地震灾区近年来毁坏或失效的泥石流防治工程大多与设计标准降雨频率关系不明显，但与大暴雨和特大暴雨雨强关系密切。所以，在泥石流防治工程可靠性评价方法中，可以引入超越概率的概念，亦即发生超出设计标准降雨频率的工程毁坏或失效概率。本文采用数理统计方法，以震区都江堰泥石流工程为例，讨论了泥石流防治工程的超越概率问题。建立了以雨强为标准的超越概率统计模型。

英文摘要：

According to the statistics results of the rainfall return period, in recent years after Wenchuan earthquake,the has great correlation with the rainfall intensity of big storms and super storms hitting instead of rainfall of designcriteria of debris flow control projects, therefore, the method of exceedance probability analysis, in other word, theprobability beyond the rainfall frequency of design criteria of the debris flow control projects failure, was proposed onthe assessment of reliability of debris flows control projects, the model based on the rainfall frequency statistics wasestablished grounding on the method of mathematical statistics and taking for example of debris flow control projects inDujiangyan County, Chengdu City.