中文摘要：

针对具有射击门体制的武器系统,研究其行进间射击的首发命中率。在分析射击误差时空特性的基础上,得出了射击门对稳定误差具有吸收效应。利用超速、欠速概率转移阵,分析了稳定误差在射击门内的概率密度分布,演绎了首发命中率估值的解析表达,给出了首发命中率的计算方法。通过数值分析,探讨了稳定误差的相关系数与其在射击门内的分布及首发命中率的关系,从而为行进间射击的武器系统稳定系统的设计、优化提供理论支持。

英文摘要：

The first round hitting probability （FRHP） is studied for the weapon system with shooting gate. On basis of the analysis on the time-space characteristic of shooting error, the absorption effect on stabilization error for shooting gate is obtained. By use of the faster transition probability matrix （FTPM） and slower transition probability matrix （STPM）, the probability density of stabilization error inside of shooting gate is deduced. Then the analytical expression of the first round hitting probability estimation value is formulated, and the computation method for FRHP is provided. By the numerical analysis, the relations among the correlation coefficient of stabilization error and its distribution inside of shooting gate and FRHP are discussed, which provides the theoretical support for the design and optimization of stabilization system for the weapon systems shooting in move.