从众过街是行人交通的重要安全隐患。在不确定交通环境下,群体参照效应伴随着行人过街行为决策的全过程。文中从行人过街行为的影响因素出发,基于动态博弈理论推演参照群体影响下的行人从众通过或等待的行为变化过程,构建行人过街行为的阈值模型,定量评估参照群体对行人行为决策的影响程度,探讨参照群体与个体行为的相互作用关系,并以某一交叉口为例进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,群体参照效应对行人过街行为决策存在显著影响。研究结果能够丰富和扩展行人行为研究的理论框架和分析方法,为制定、实施行人过街交通的安全管理策略提供科学的决策支持。
Conformity crossing is one of the important potential safety hazards of pedestrian traffic. In uncertain traffic environments, the conformity effect of pedestrians play an important role in the whole process of the crossing decision of individual pedestrians. In this paper, the evolution rule for the crossing or waiting of pedestrians is de- duced based on the game theory after analyzing the factors influencing the interaction crossing, and a threshold model describing the crossing behavior is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the impact degree of reference group on individual pedestrian's decision. Moreover, the interaction between the reference group and the individual is analyzed by using an example of interaction. The results show that the effect of reference group has a significant im- pact on the pedestrians' crossing behavior. This research expands and enriches the theoretical framework and tech- nique of pedestrian behavior analysis, and provides a scientific foundation for the establishment and implementation of high-performance safety measures for the crossing of pedestrians.