本文通过实证研究发现,股票回报率的截面离差包含单只股票和组合回报率未来波动的增量信息。而对非预期离差而言,当后期出现高的非预期离差时,伴随的回报率具有惯性,当后期出现低的非预期离差时,伴随的回报率呈现反转现象,这种结论无论对单个公司还是按平均市值分类的组合都是成立的。这些结论对事件研究、期权定价等需要预测价格波动的研究及更好理解价格信息都是有用的,特别在中国股市能更好理解庄家的动机。
Cross- sectional return dispersion(RD) contains reliable incremental information about the future volatility of both firm-level and portfolio-level returns by our empirical analysis.As for unexpected RD, we find substantial momentum (reversals) in consecutive daily returns when the latter daily has unexpected high (low) RD, which is pervasive across firm-level and size-based portfolios. They are usefull for price volatility study, such as event study and option pricing, understanding price information, especially the bankers motives better in the Chinese stock market.