中文摘要：

在中国经济发展“新三步走”战略背景下，本文采用逆向追踪法，以石油、煤炭、天然气三种主要一次能源消耗为研究对象，消除在能源转化过程中因地区科技水平不同造成的影响，通过改进IPAT模型，对2050年前中国人均碳排放在三种经济发展情境假设下进行分析预测。结果表明：中国人均碳排放峰值随经济发展情境不同将分别在2020和2030年出现，人均碳排放量将达到2.0127-2.6791 t；峰值出现前人均碳排放量将以每年2.25%-3.40%的速度增长，之后会以每年1.33%-1.78%的速度降低。至2050年，人均碳排放量将减少为1.3147-1.8817 t。本研究为中国未来碳排放政策的制定以及国际碳排放权限的划定提供了方法与数据支持。

英文摘要：

Under the context of the New Three-step strategy of Chinese economic development, we use the reverse tracing method and petroleum, natural gas and coal as sources of carbon emissions. To eliminate the impact of regional and technological levels in the energy conversion process we improved the IPAT model and used it to predict and analyze China’s per capita carbon emissions in three assumed scenarios up to 2050. We found that China’s per capita carbon emissions peak wil occur respectively in 2020 and 2030 in different assumed scenarios; national per capita carbon emissions wil reach 2.0127–2.6791 tons; China’s per capita carbon emissions wil grow continuously at an average rate of 2.25%–3.40% per year before the peak year and then wil decline at a rate of 1.33%–1.78% per year. By the year of 2050, national per capita carbon emissions wil be 1.3147–1.8817 tons.