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中文摘要：
耕地资源和粮食安全不仅是国家层面的研究问题，也是区域层面的重要课题。文中利用55年的耕地统计数据和粮食总产量和人口数据，揭示了咸阳市耕地总体变化特征，分析了咸阳市耕地减少态势的空间差异，对粮食供需状况进行了分析和预测。研究结果表明：咸阳市的耕地面积在建国以后的55年内，经过小幅度的波动，总体上呈减少的趋势，而人均耕地面积持续减少；咸阳市各县区在近20年里耕地减少的幅度北部高于南部；咸阳市的粮食需求量随着人口的增长而增大，但是粮食的供给受多种因素的影响波动较大，总体上呈增长的趋势。预测结果表明，咸阳市的耕地面积还将继续减少，但是在提高复种指数和粮食单产的基础上，粮食供给在人均粮食消费量400kg／a·人情况下，未来10年还能保持较高的粮食自给水平，至2020年，咸阳市的粮食自给还能保持在90％的状态，仍将处于安全状态。
英文摘要：
Based on the 55a statistical data of the cultivated land, grain production and population data, the characteristics of the cultivated land change in Xianyang area, the spatial difference in cultivated land, as well as the the grain supply and demanding during the past 55 years were analyzed, and the grain security was forecasted. The results showed that the cultivated land decreased continuously after the process of fluctuating lightly;the cultivated land per capita decreased contimuously;the range of cultivated land＇s reduction in north region was higher than in south part;with the increasing of population, the grain demanding was increasing also;though the supply of food increased totally, the production fluctuated largely ascribe to the affection of many factors. The prediction results of grain security showed that the cultivated land would keep the tendency of decrease, but in the condition of improving multicropping index and grain yield per unit, the grain consumption per capita being 400kg/a,the grain supply would keep in a high level in the next 10 years,the grain supply would keep the state of 90%, remain in the situation of security.
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