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基于经济水平和温室气体排放过程的国家型划分
  • 期刊名称:第四纪研究, 30(3), pp 489-496, 2010/4/20.
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]
  • 作者机构:[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
  • 相关基金:国家科技支撑计划重大项目(批准号: 2007BAC03A11)、中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(批准号: KZCX2-YW-315-4)和国家自然科学基金项目(批准号: 40871033)共同资助
  • 相关项目:陕甘宁交界山地植被格局、动态及与气候变化的关系研究
中文摘要:

文章根据国际通用数据库中关于社会经济指标和温室气体排放等方面权威数据,同时分析世界各主要经济集团、国家和地区的经济发展和温室气体排放水平和过程.采用近40年来各国家和地区的人均国内生产总值(GDP)和人均温室气体排放两个指标,将世界主要国家和地区划分成6种不同的国家型: 低人均碳排放贫困国家(ⅠA)、低人均碳排放相对富裕国家(ⅡA)、低人均碳排放富裕国家(ⅢA)、高人均碳排放相对富裕国家(ⅡB)、高人均碳排放富裕国家(ⅢB)和高人均碳排放贫困国家(ⅠB).研究时段上,ⅠB类国家极少出现,前5类分别对应于世界最贫困地区、主要发展中国家、经济发展较快的经济转型国家、富裕岛屿地区以及北美和欧洲富裕国家.数据分析表明,各国与地区的经济发展与温室气体排放之间有密切联系,各国家型的经济发展和温室气体排放的组合关系长期比较稳定.1970~2005年间,大多数国家和地区经济发展水平有明显提高,而人均温室气体排放变化不太明显,即人均温室气体排放较高国家,排放水平长期居高不下,人均低排放国家温室气体排放增加不明显; 国家型的主要变化过程是ⅠA转向ⅡA和ⅡB转向ⅢB,分别发生在20世纪70年代和20世纪70年代末到80年代.了解这一变化过程,对认识各国经济发展与温室气体排放的关系及其历史过程,对理解各方的减排目标和策略,对我国在以后气候外交谈判的立场选择等方面都具有重要的启发作用.

英文摘要:

According to the authoritative data involving social economic indicators and greenhouse gas emission from the international universal database, the levels and processes of economic development and greenhouse gas emission in major economic groups, nations and regions of the world are simultaneously analyzed. Setting Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and emission per capita from various countries and regions in the past 40 years as the standard, according to the data in 2005, countries and regions in the world are divided into six groups: countries with low emission per capita and low economic level( Ⅰ A), countries with low emission per capita and medium economic level( Ⅱ A), countries with low emission per capita and high economic level( Ⅲ A), countries with high emission per capita and medium economic level ( Ⅱ B) , countries with high emission per capita and high economic level ( Ⅲ B) , countries with high emission per capita and low economic level ( Ⅰ B ). Counties belongs to Ⅰ B are quite rare in the study period, while the first five groups respectively correspond to the poor regions, main developing countries, economic transitional countries with rapid economic development, rich islands and developed countries in North America and Europe. Data analysis shows that there is a close relationship between emissions and the economic development of different countries and regions. The composition relationships between emissions and the economic development of different countries and regions are relatively stable over a long period of time. From 1970 to 2005, ascending trends existed in the economic development of most countries and regions. However, the emission has a significant increase in a small part of countries and regions. In other word, for those with high emission, the emission level is always high. But for those with low greenhouse gases emission, the emission does not increase too much. The main processes of groups changing are from ⅠA to Ⅱ A and from Ⅱ B to ?

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