中文摘要：

在梯级电站逐渐增多的情况下，上游水电站控制下泄流量是降低下游施工导流风险的有效途径。针对传统导流风险研究较少考虑施工导流系统与梯级电站的关联，本文按照洪水的行进方向，概化梯级建设条件下的施工导流系统，分析上游己建水电站控泄对下游导流系统的影响。通过临时控泄规则下的调洪演算，叠加上游水电站下泄洪水与区间洪水，模拟计算梯级建设条件下的施工导流风险。将导流风险分配与上游水电站控泄规则以及下游导流方案耦合起来研究，建立上游水电站控泄条件下的施工导流风险分配模型，协调上游水电站和下游导流系统目标，实现梯级建设条件下的施工导流系统风险的协调与系统优化。最后通过算例分析表明这种方法是有效、可行的。

英文摘要：

With the increase of cascade hydropower stations, upstream flow control is an effective way to reduce the downstream diversion risk. The construction diversion under the condition of cascade development is schematically simplified according to the direction of flood. The influence of upstream flow control to downstream diversion is analyzed from the perspective of the whole cascade system. The risk of cascade diversion is quantitatively calculated through reservoir flood routing operation under the temporary flow control. Risk distribution of construction diversion is also studied by coupling the rules of upstream flow control and downstream diversion standards to balance the targets of upstream reservoir and downstream diversion system. Furthermore, a risk distribution method is developed for the condition of upstream flow control and it is helpful to risk balance calculation and diversion system optimization. Finally, a numerical example is presented to demonstrate the application of this method.