中文摘要：

为了揭示路网层面各因素对城郊公路安全的影响,采用宏观安全分析方法,基于交通分析小区（TAZ）层面构建了泊松对数正态条件自回归（PLN-CAR）模型。为考虑相邻TAZ间的空间相关性,分别采用0-1矩阵、共同边界矩阵以及相邻TAZ间衔接城郊公路总车道数3类空间权重矩阵构建了PLN-CAR模型。模型中同时考虑了公路层面变量（信控交叉口密度、接入口密度等）以及TAZ层面宏观变量（路网形态、土地利用类型等）。研究结果表明：采用共同边界矩阵的模型表现最优;相较于微观安全研究而言,采用宏观安全分析方法可以更加完整地考虑接入口密度以及信控交叉口密度对城郊公路路段与交叉口整体安全的影响;城郊公路长度、沿线接入口与信控交叉口密度均对城郊公路事故总数有显著正相关影响;在其他变量保持不变的情况下,树枝型路网TAZ内城郊公路事故数较网格型路网多88.3%,表明通过加强城郊公路沿线接入口管理,规范公路沿线信控交叉口设置,并于公路两侧规划建设平行的次干路可以有效改善其安全状况;相对工业仓储用地而言,商业办公用地和居住生活用地内的城郊公路更加容易发生事故。

英文摘要：

In order to investigate the safety impacts of roadway network features on suburban highways, macro-level safety analysis method was applied and Poisson log-normal conditional autoregressive （PLN-CAR） models were developed for suburban highways at the traffic analysis zone （TAZ） level. To investigate the spatial correlation between adjacent TAZs, PLN-CAR models were established on three types of weight matrixes of 0-1 first order, common boundary length and total lane number of connecting suburban highways. Both highway level variables （signalized intersection density, access density, etc. ） and macro variables at TAZ level （road network pattern, land use type, etc. ） were included in these models. The results show that the model with the weight matrix of common boundary length performs the best. The overall safety impacts of access density and signalized intersection density on both road segments and intersections of suburban highways can be taken into consideration more integrally by applying macro-level safety analysis method, compared with micro-level modeling. Specifically, length of suburban highway, access density and signalized intersection density are significantly positive correlated with highway crashes. When other variables held constant, crashes on highways in the TAZ with tree-like pattern road network are 88. 3% more than those in the grid pattern road network, which indicates that the highway safety can be improved efficiently by enhancing highway access management, regulating the spacing of signalized intersections and constructing collector roads parallel to highways. In addition, more crashes tend to occur in commercial and residential land than in industrial land.