中文摘要：

基于模糊DEA/AR（数据包络分析/保证域）模型建立水库的抗震性能综合评价体系。采用AHP（层次分析法）得到影响水库大坝抵御地震的三个输入因素：坝址的地震危险性等级、水库的结构特征、大坝的建造状况,建议以坝体裂缝或变形（包括滑坡）、渗漏和其它问题三种震损现象作为输出变量,运用LINGO软件计算得出各水库的相对抗震有效性上下界,据此得到各水库的抗震性能模糊相对有效性的排序结果,由此判定各大坝的抗震性能优劣程度：模糊有效性的排序指标I（E～i）越大,则大坝的抗震性能越差,反之则越好。以汶川地震中罗江县水库大坝为实例,对罗江县19座高危以上土坝进行抗震性能评价。所建立的抗震性能排序系统为除险加固先后顺序提供参考意见。

英文摘要：

A comprehensive evaluation system for seismic behaviors of reservoirs is established using a model called fuzzy DEA/AR. In this system, AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） is used to obtain three factors that influence the ability of reservoir to resist earthquakes, namely, seismic risk level of dam ＂site, structural characteristics of reservoir, and construction conditions of dam. These factors are used as system input variables, and three seismic damage phenomena of cracking, leakage and other problems as system outputs. For each reservoir, its lower and upper bounds of relative aseismic performances are computed with software LINGO to compute the ranking indices of the corresponding fuzzy performances. The relative performance of the dams can be determined, the smaller index of a dam means the better aseismic performances. A study case of the 19 high-risk dams in Luojiang county under the Wenchuan earthquakes presented in this paper, shows the order of reservoirs in need of reinforcement and the applicability of the evaluation system.