中文摘要：

基于VES生产函数，结合变截距的固定效应模型，估计了中国28个省份1978-2010年的农业资本-劳动的替代弹性，对资本-劳动替代弹性在农业增长中的作用进行实证研究。结果显示：农业生产中资本要素投入的产出弹性明显大于劳动要素投入的产出弹性，农业生产处于规模报酬递增阶段；1978-2010年间农业资本对劳动的平均替代弹性为1.529，农业资本对劳动的替代弹性促进了农业增长；全国以及东、中、西部地区的农业资本-劳动替代弹性均呈上升趋势，且替代弹性较高的省份主要集中在东部地区，中西部地区无论是农业资本-劳动替代弹性大小还是增长率均低于东部地区。以上表明我国农业生产可以促进资本对劳动的有效替代，实现农业全要素生产率的提高。

英文摘要：

Based on VES Production Function Model and Fixed Effects Model of Variable Intercept , this paper estimated the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor of 28 provinces in China from 1978 to 2010 and conducted an empirical research into the impact of the elasticity of substitution between cap -ital and labor upon agricultural development .It concluded that in agricultural production , the output e-lasticity of capital was larger than that of labor and the production stayed in the process of Increasing Re -turns to Scale.Between 1978-2010,the average substitution elasticity of capacity for labor was 1.529, which promoted the agricultural growth .The elasticity of substitution between capital and labor of agricul-ture in east, middle and west China has an upward trend .The provinces with higher elasticity of substitu-tion between capital and labor concentrated in the eastern region and the agricultural elasticity of substitu-tion between capital and labor and growth rates in middle and west regions were lower than that in the east . This result suggests that agricultural capital could substitute labor with raising total factor productivity .