中文摘要：

通过2006~2010年新疆乙肝月发病率数据分析建立了时间序列模型，该模型能够较好的预测短期内新疆乙肝的流行情况，对乙肝的流行情况进行预警，提前做好预防控制的准备。

英文摘要：

Based on the reported data of Hepatitis B of xinjiang province from 2006 to 2010,the author tries to establish time series model, the model can well predict short-term incidence of Hepatitis B in Xin- jiang, and provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the Hepatitis B.