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中文摘要：
为了提高AREM模式业务预报能力，对AREM业务模式陆面过程参数化方案作了修改，将陆面过程模式BATS耦合其中；同时，应用耦合BATS的AREM模式与原模式分别对2006年6～7月我国南方汛期降水过程进行了典型个例模拟分析和批量后报试验；另外，对降水预报进行了分区统计检验。结果表明，引入BATS方案使模式对降水区和降水中心预报有较好的改进，漏报率减小，Ts评分明显提高，这说明恰当描述陆面过程对改进AREM模式降水预报具有重要作用。
英文摘要：
The land surface parameteIization in the operationally used AREM is modified to enhance its performance in the real-time precipitation forecast through coupling with the land surface model BATS. With the improved AREM and the old AREM, the typical cases analyses and hindcast experiments are carried out in the south of China in the flood of June and July in 2006. In addition, the precipitation forecasts over two months are statistically tested in different regions of China to know their behaviors. The results indicate that the improved model has better predictions in the precipitation pattern and the heavy rainfall location with reduced no-hitting rate and increased obviously Ts score. The modified land surface processes in AREM plays an important role in improving quality of precipitation forecast.
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A new analytical model for thermal stresses in multi-phase materials and lifetime prediction methods
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