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Exploring the epidemic transmission network of SARS in-out flow in mainland China
  • ISSN号:1001-6538
  • 期刊名称:Chinese Science Bulletin
  • 时间:2013.5
  • 页码:1818-1831
  • 分类:S851[农业科学—预防兽医学;农业科学—兽医学;农业科学—畜牧兽医] TN943.6[电子电信—信号与信息处理;电子电信—信息与通信工程]
  • 作者机构:[1]Geography and Environment Department, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China, [2]State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China, [3]Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China, [4]Zhejiang-CAS Application Center for Geoinformatics, Jiaxing 314100, China
  • 相关基金:This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40871181 and 41101369), the Key Knowledge Innovative Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-EW-318), the Jiangxi Province Natural Science Foundation (20114BAB215024), the Natural Science Youth Foundation of Jiangxi Province Office of Education (G J Jl1073), the Open Foundation of Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Water- shed Research, Ministry of Education (PK2010001), and the Jiashan Sci- ence and Technology Project "Intelligent Management System and Appli- cation of Urban Humans-Things Based on Virtual Geographic Environ- ment" (2011B04).
  • 相关项目:空间信息智能分发决策方法研究
中文摘要:

变化单个 susceptible-infected-symptomatic-treated-recovered 流行病过程的空间与时间的模式和在区域之间的信息/材料流动的相互作用,与 20022003 严重急性呼吸症候群( SARS )一起在大陆中国的流行病学的调查数据包括个人(工作单位/家地址,发作地点和报导单位)的三个典型地点,被用来定义在里面外面, SARS 流行病的流动传播了。而且, SARS 流行病的输入/输出传播网络根据定义被造在里面外面流动。在里面外面,流动,空间分发和节点特征参数的时间的变化,和 SARS 传播的结构的特征联网的 SARS 的空间与时间的分发包括地并且系统地被探索。结果证明(1 ) 北京和广东有自我传播和产量案例的最高的风险,并且预防 / 控制措施在北京向自我传播指导了案例应该集中了于 SARS 流行病的以后的时期;(2 ) 在大陆中国的 SARS 传播网络有重要聚类的特征,与二聚类在北京和广东集中的产量案例的区域;(3 ) 广东是 SARS 流行病的原来的来源,并且当大多数另外的省的感染的案例主要在早时期期间发生了时,到包围的省没有重要传播;相反,尽管在北京之间的输入/输出相互作用和另外的省全国在中间迟了的流行时期期间开始了,在北京的 SARS 为空间传播显示出一个重要能力;(4 ) 当北京和它的包围的省形成了在中间迟了的时期期间的高风险的传播的一个分开的、重要范围时,广东有在整个全部流行时期的空间传播的一个重要范围;特别在迟了的时期,北京附近的省的影响范围例如 Hebei,比北京的甚至稍微大;并且(5 ) 当输出网络有盖住的一个广泛的高紧张的传播能力和影响范围时,输入网络有一个低紧张的传播能力和中间级的影响范围几乎,全部国家,和这传播了,影响显示重要聚类特征逐渐地增加了。在里面外面,流动和它的相应传播联网的流行?

英文摘要:

The changing spatiotemporal patterns of the individual susceptible-infected-symptomatic-treated-recovered epidemic process and the interactions of information/material flows between regions, along with the 2002-2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemiological investigation data in mainland China, including three typical locations of individuals (working unit/home address, onset location and reporting unit), are used to define the in-out flow of the SARS epidemic spread. Moreover, the in- put/output transmission networks of the SARS epidemic are built according to the definition of in-out flow. The spatiotemporal distribution of the SARS in-out flow, spatial distribution and temporal change of node characteristic parameters, and the structural characteristics of the SARS transmission networks are comprehensively and systematically explored. The results show that (1) Beijing and Guangdong had the highest risk of self-spread and output cases, and prevention/control measures directed toward self-spread cases in Beijing should have focused on the later period of the SARS epidemic; (2) the SARS transmission networks in mainland China had significant clustering characteristics, with two clustering areas of output cases centered in Beijing and Guangdong; (3) Guangdong was the original source of the SARS epidemic, and while the infected cases of most other provinces occurred mainly during the early period, there was no significant spread to the surrounding provinces; in contrast, although the input/output interactions between Beijing and the other provinces countrywide began during the mid-late epidemic period, SARS in Beijing showed a significant capacity for spatial spreading; (4) Guangdong had a significant range of spatial spreading throughout the entire epidemic period, while Beijing and its surrounding provinces formed a separate, significant range of high-risk spreading during the mid-late period; especially in late period, the influence range of Beijing's neighboring province

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