中文摘要：

根据KAYA公式,文章建立了三个低碳经济模型。以江西为例运用模型量化研究江西各市的碳排放量,通过对三个模型计算结果分析发现：工业化程度较高的南昌市、新余市、鹰潭市人均CO2排放量较大,CO2排放与工业发展程度有较大的相关性;在模型三计算中,森林植被对CO2减排有巨大作用;通过对全省各市的CO2排放对比分析,发现江西各设区市低碳经济发展极不平衡。同时还发现,由于森林等生态系统对CO2的吸收功能,部分城市在经济发展中存在CO2零排放的低碳发展的可能性。

英文摘要：

Based on KAYA model,three models of low-carbon economy were established in this paper.For a case of Jiangxi Province,quantitative researches on carbon emissions in the economic development of Jiangxi cities were empirically analyzed,and the results show： the higher degree of industrialization in Nanchang City,Xinyu City and Yingtan City,the more CO2 emissions per capita,and CO2 emissions has a greater correlation with the industrial development.In model 3,the forest coverage has great effect on CO2 emissions;The comparative analysis of the CO2 emissions of all cities shows that,the districts and cities in Jiangxi low-carbon economic development is extremely uneven.And some cities are in the possibility of zero emissions of CO2 in low-carbon development,due to the CO2 absorption function of the forest and other ecosystems.