中文摘要：

软件自身的复杂性和未来变更需求的不确定性使得软件的稳定性评估十分困难.文中将软件的变更需求看成一系列＂原子变更需求＂的叠加,把＂原子变更需求＂的响应过程抽象成初始变更节点的随机选择过程以及由此引起的涟漪效应,提出了基于变更传播仿真的稳定性评估方法SEMCIS,定义了变更的传播模型和评价指标,并且给出了一种基于变更传播仿真的指标计算方法.实验结果表明,降低传播概率、改善软件的体系结构设计可以有效地抵御＂涟漪效应＂的发生,提高软件的稳定性.入度Hub的相互连接是造成大范围变更的主要原因,而入度Hub中存在的大量后继节点,则是造成大范围变更频繁发生的主要原因.

英文摘要：

It＇s difficult to evaluate the software stability because of the complexity of software and the uncertainty of future change requirements.In this paper,various change requirements are regarded as the combination of a series of ＂atomic change requirement＂.The modification of software,which is used to satisfy the ＂atomic change requirement＂,is regarded as：firstly,modify a randomly selected ＂initial element＂;secondly,a ripple effect caused by the change of it.Then we proposed a software stability evaluation method based on change propagation simulation.A change propagation model and a set of change impact metrics are defined.In order to simplify the calculation of the metrics,simulation technology is introduced into software stability evaluation instead of the conditional probability calculation.The experiments result indicates that decreasing the propagation probability or improving software architecture could effectively resist the happening of broad ripple effect and enhance software stability.And the connections between in-degree hubs result in broad change.The existence of a mount of successors of in-degree hubs results in the frequent happening of broad changes.