利用澳大利亚悉尼观测站连续16年的实测资料,并结合波高阈值法以及年N大波法两种新的采样方法,利用最小二乘法原理,对对数正态分布、Gumbel第一型极值分布、Weibull分布、指数分布和皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线五种分布函数进行分析和比较,从而选出一种适用的分布函数。同时,文章介绍了一种最新的估计三参数Weibull分布参数的方法。结果表明:三参数Weibull分布函数的相关系数较大,拟合较好,而且均方误也都较小。从而得出结论,三参数Weibull分布函数得到的结果较好,并建议使用该分布函数进行设计波高的计算。
Five distribution functions for calculation of design wave height was compared, i. e. the Log-Normal distribution, Gumbel distribution, Weibull distribution, Exponential distribution and Pearson Ⅲ, based on the 16-year storm peak wave height data collected off Sydney in Tasman Sea, Australia. The Peak-Over-Threshold Annual N-Largest method, and the least-square fitting method are used to calculate design wave height. A new method is inforduced to estimate the parameter of Three Parameter Weibull Distribution. It is found that the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution is in general more accurate than the others, the correlation coefficient R^2 is higher than others and the square error is less. So the conclusion may be got that the Three Parmeter Weinull Distribution Function is better, and it is also suggested to calculate the design wave height.