中文摘要：

经济全球化迫切要求放开农产品关税限制,贸易限制对农产品出口量与价格产生显著影响,从而导致农产品出口国相关主体福利的变动。本文运用局部均衡分析方法,在对大米供给价格弹性、需求价格弹性及出口需求弹性估计的基础上,基于国际粮食价格剧烈波动的现实,分析大米出口关税变动对不同主体福利变动的影响。研究结果表明,关税水平的降低在一定程度上促进了整体社会福利水平的改善,但其福利效应在生产者、消费者、政府等不同主体之间的分配是非均衡的,关税水平的降低促进了消费者福利和政府财政收入的增加,以及贸易条件的改善,但同时也导致了生产者的巨大损失和汇率的损失。因此,政府根据最佳关税水平,对不同主体的福利变动进行调节与补贴,从而实现福利均衡,促进大米产业的稳定发展与产业结构的优化。

英文摘要：

This paper using the partial equilibrium economic model calculated the welfare effects on different subjects under the background of international grain price fluctuation. The results showed that reducing tariffs level could promote the overall social welfare to an extent, however, the distribution of welfare effects between producer and consumer is imbalanced, reducing tariffs level in- creased the government financial income, thereafter the terms of trade improved, but leading to the loss of exchange rate. Therefore, the government should weigh the pres and cons of different subjects on welfare effects to promote the stable development of the rice industry.